Frequently Asked Questions
What is an influenza pandemic?
A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. An influenza pandemic occurs when a new influenza A virus emerges for which there is little of no immunity in the human population, begins to cause serious illness, and then spreads easily from person-to-person worldwide.
How do pandemic viruses occur?
New influenza viruses occur as a result of a process called antigenic shift, which causes a sudden and major change in the influenza A viruses. These changes occur when proteins on the surface of the virus combine in new ways as a result of mutation or exchange of engetic material between multiple influenza viruses. If such changes result in a new influenza A virus subtype that can ingect humans and spread easily from person to person, an influenza pandemic can occur.
Will a pandemic influenza occur? If so, when will it happen?
Many scientists believe it is a matter of time until the next influenza pandemic occurs. However, the timing and severity of the next pandemic cannot be predicted. Influenza pandemics occurred three times in the past century - in 1918-19, 1957-58. and 1968-69.
What age groups are most likley to be affected during an influenza pandemic?
Although scientists cannot predict the specific outcome of an influenza pandemic, it is likely that many age groups will be seriously affected. At greatest risk for hospitalization and death will be infants, the elderly, and those with pre-existing medical conditions. Again, few if any people would have immunity to the virus.
Will the H5N1 bird flu virus cause the next influenza pandemic?
Presently, scientists cannot predict whether the H5N1 virus will cause a pandemic. Today, H5N1 is a bird flu. There have yet to be any reported cases of sustained human-to-human transmission of H5N1. As the disease mutates, however, it is possible the virus could become capable of passing between humans and spread quickly. It is for this reason that UST, and the greater community, are focusing on public health efforts that will help us no matter what pandemic strain is seen.
Which countries have been affected?
Outbreaks in wild and domestic birds have been reported in more than 40 countries including: the Republic of Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Thailand, Cambodia, Loa Peoples Democratic Republic, Indonesia, China, Malaysia, Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Romania.
Are vaccines and antivirals available for prevention and treatment?
Some vaccine clinical trials are currently underway. Because the antigen needs to closely match the pandemic virus, large-scale production will not start until the virus has emerged. Current vaccine production capacity cannot meet demand. Tamiflu and Relenza are oral antivirals that are currently available and are effective for reducing the severity and duration of the illness. These medications can also be used prophylactically to decrease the number of new cases when an exposure has occurred.
